What is Harrow Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Harrow Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Harrow (Harrow) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
102 Woodmont Boulevard, Suite 610, Nashville, TN, USA, 37205
Harrow Inc is a leading eyecare pharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative ophthalmic pharmaceutical products for the U.S. market. Harrow helps U.S. eyecare professionals preserve the gift of sight by making its comprehensive portfolio of prescription and non-prescription pharmaceutical products accessible and affordable to millions of Americans each year.
Executives
| Mark L Baum |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O IMPRIMIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 12264 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Opaleye Management Inc. |
10 percent owner |
ONE BOSTON PLACE, SUITE 2600, BOSTON MA 02108 |
| Martin A. Makary |
director |
102 WOODMONT BLVD., SUITE 610, NASHVILLE TN 37205 |
| Van Horn R. Lawrence |
director |
354 COOL SPRINGS BLVD., SUITE 106, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Andrew Boll |
officer: VP, Accounting and Reporting |
437 S HWY 101, STE 209, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075 |
| Lindstrom Richard L Md |
director |
2811 WESTWOOD PL, WAYZATA MN 55391 |
| Perry J. Sternberg |
director |
102 WOODMONT BLVD., SUITE 610, NASHVILLE TN 37205 |
| Teresa Sparks |
director |
40 BURTON HILLS BOULEVARD SUITE 500, NASHVILLE TN 37215 |
| Robert J Kammer |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board |
1440 28TH STREET, SUITE 9, BOULDER CO 80303 |
| Longboard Capital Advisors, Llc |
other: Institutional Investor |
9665 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 430, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212 |
| Brett Conrad |
other: Managing Mbr of Longboard Cap. |
1312 CEDAR ST., SANTA MONICA CA 90405 |
| Clayton D Edwards |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
12264 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Anthony Principi |
director |
2300 WEST PLANO PARKWAY, M/S D2420, PLANO TX 75244 |
| Donald Paul Miloni |
10 percent owner |
1425 GREENWOOD LANE, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80125 |
| John P. Saharek |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
12264 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
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