HTGMQ (HTG Molecular Diagnostics) Predictability Rank

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What is HTG Molecular Diagnostics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HTG Molecular Diagnostics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HTG Molecular Diagnostics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » HTG Molecular Diagnostics Inc (OTCPK:HTGMQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3430 E. Global Loop, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85706

Website

https://www.htgmolecular.com

HTG Molecular Diagnostics Inc is a commercial-stage RNA platform-based life sciences company focused on advancing the promise of precision medicine. Its proprietary NGS-adapted chemistry and HTG EdgeSeq platform automates sample processing and can quickly, robustly, and simultaneously profile hundreds or thousands of molecular targets using a relatively small amount of biological samples, in liquid or solid forms. Its products include instruments, consumables, and software that combine to form its HTG EdgeSeq platform. The company's menu of HTG EdgeSeq molecular profiling panels is automated on its HTG EdgeSeq platform, applying genomic sequencing tools to quickly generate gene expression data using its simplified workflow for customers.

Executives

Stephen Barat	officer: Senior VP of Therapeutics	C/O HTG MOLECULAR DIAGNOSTICS, INC., 3430 E. GLOBAL LOOP, TUCSON AZ 85706
Thomas W. Dubensky	director	C/O ADURO BIOTECH, INC., 740 HEINZ AVENUE, BERKELEY CA 94710
L5 Capital Inc.	10 percent owner	1 FIRST CANADIAN PLACE, 39TH FLOOR, TORONTO A6 M5X 1H3
Christopher P Kiritsy	director
Byron Lawson	officer: SVP/Chief Commercial Officer	C/O HTG MOLECULAR DIAGNOSTICS, INC., 3430 E. GLOBAL LOOP, TUCSON AZ 85706
Tim B Johnson	director, officer: President & CEO
Laurence W Lytton	10 percent owner	467 CENTRAL PARK WEST, NY NY 10025
Laura Lee Godlewski	officer: VP of Accounting and Reporting	C/O HTG MOLECULAR DIAGNOSTICS, INC., 3430 E. GLOBAL LOOP, TUCSON AZ 85706
Michelle Renee Griffin	director	19723 NE 65TH LANE, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Shaun D Mcmeans	officer: VP, Finance & Admin. & CFO	3708 E COLUMBIA STREET, SUITE #110, TUCSON AZ 85714-3413
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Plc Glaxosmithkline	10 percent owner	980 GREAT WEST ROAD, BRENTFORD MIDDLESEX X0 TW8 9GS
Nv Qiagen	10 percent owner	HULSTERWEG 82, PL VENLO P7 5912
Ann Hanham	director	ONE EMBRACADERO CTR, STE 2700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Don M Hardison	director