HTLD (Heartland Express) Predictability Rank

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What is Heartland Express Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Heartland Express Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Heartland Express Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Heartland Express Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Heartland Express Inc (NAS:HTLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HLX:Germany

Address

901 Heartland Way, North Liberty, IA, USA, 52317

Website

https://www.heartlandexpress.com

Heartland Express Inc is engaged in providing truckload services across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. These truckload services are asset-based transportation services in the dry van truckload market. The company offers truckload temperature-controlled transportation services, and Mexico logistics services. A majority of its customers represent the consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries.

Executives

James G Pratt	director	11 THE WOODS NE, IOWA CITY IA 52240
Ann S. Gerdin Revocable Trust	10 percent owner, other: Co-Trustee of 10% Owner	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Michael J Gerdin	director, officer: PRESIDENT	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Michael John Sullivan	director	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Brenda M Lantz	director	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Todd A Smith	officer: President of Smith Transport	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Christopher Alan Strain	officer: Vice President/CFO/Treasurer	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Brenda S Neville	director	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
David Paul Millis	director	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Jo Anne Borden	officer: VP of HR and Risk Management	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Angela K Janssen	other: Co-Trustee of 10% Owner	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Julie J Durr	other: Co-Trustee of 10% Owner	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Larry J. Gordon	director	901 HEARTLAND WAY, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Kent Daryl Rigdon	officer: Vice President of Sales	901 NORTH KANSAS AVENUE, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317
Tahira K Hira	director	901 N KANSAS AVE, NORTH LIBERTY IA 52317