HUBB (Hubbell) Predictability Rank

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What is Hubbell Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hubbell Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hubbell Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Hubbell Inc (NYSE:HUBB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HUEC:Germany

Address

40 Waterview Drive, Shelton, CT, USA, 06484

Website

https://www.hubbell.com

Founded in 1888 by Harvey Hubbell, the eponymous company was the conduit through which the pull-chain lamp socket was originally sold. Hubbell has since grown into an electricity transmission and distribution behemoth, housing more than 75 brands that sell components found on power lines, electrical substations, and within commercial and industrial buildings. The company's primary operations are within the United States, where around 90% of revenue is derived.

Executives

Carlos M Cardoso	director	STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC., 1000 STANLEY DRIVE, NEW BRITAIN CT 06053
Gerben Bakker	officer: Group Vice President	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Alyssa R Flynn	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
John F Malloy	director	2556 SPRING VALLEY ROAD, BETHLEHEM PA 18105
Mark Eugene Mikes	officer: President Electrical Solutions	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Del Nero Jonathan M.	officer: Vice President, Controller	C/0 HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Debra L. Dial	director	208 S. AKARD, 29TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75202
Neal J Keating	director	C/O KAMAN CORPORATION, PO BOX 1, BLOOMFIELD CT 06002
Katherine Anne Lane	officer: VP, Acting GC and Secretary	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
William R Sperry	officer: Executive VP and CFO	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Gregory Gumbs	officer: President, Utility Solutions	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Anthony Guzzi	director	301 MERRITT SEVEN, 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Allan Connolly	officer: Group President, Power Systems	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Stephen M Mais	officer: Vice President Human Resources	C/O HUBBELL INCORPORATED, 40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Rhett Anthony Hernandez	director	40 WATERVIEW DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484