HYI (Western Asset High Yield Defined Opps.) Predictability Rank

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What is Western Asset High Yield Defined Opps. Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Western Asset High Yield Defined Opps. Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Western Asset High Yield Defined Opps. Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Western Asset High Yield Defined Opps. Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Western Asset High Yield Defined Opps. (NYSE:HYI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

620 Eighth Avenue, 47th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.franklintempleton.com

Western Asset High Yield Defined Opps. is a non-diversified, limited-term, closed-end management investment company. The company's investment objective is to provide high income and seek capital appreciation. It invests a majority of its net assets in a portfolio of high-yield corporate fixed-income securities issued or originated by U.S. or foreign public or private corporations and other business entities, with varying maturities.

Executives

Oliveira Marc De	officer: Secretary/Chief Legal Officer	C/O LEGG MASON & CO. LLC, ONE FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Hoffmann Courtney A.	other: Secretary/GC Subadviser	WESTERN ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 385 EAST COLORADO BOULEVARD, PASADENA CA 91101
Daniel P Cronin	director	235 EAST 42ND ST, NEW YORK NY 10017
Andrew J. Bowden	other: COO/Subadviser	WESTERN ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 385 EAST COLORADO BOULEVARD, PASADENA CA 91101
Laura F Fergerson	other: Manager/Investment Manager	3310 QUALITY DRIVE, 2ND FLOOR, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Brian Eakes	other: Manager/Investment Manager	100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
George P. Hoyt	officer: Secretary and Ch Lgl Officer	C/O FRANKLIN TEMPLETON, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Matthew Nicholls	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Jed A. Plafker	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Jennifer M Johnson	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403-1906
Fred Steven Jensen	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	LEGG MASON, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, 49TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Christopher Berarducci	officer: Treas/Principal Finan Officer	LEGG MASON, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Nisha Kumar	director	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jennifer S Berg	officer: Treasurer	100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Todd F Kuehl	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE, ATLANTA GA 30309