HYLN (Hyliion Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Hyliion Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hyliion Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hyliion Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Hyliion Holdings Corp (AMEX:HYLN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1202 BMC Drive, Suite 100, Cedar Park, TX, USA, 78613

Website

https://www.hyliion.com

Hyliion Holdings Corp provides solutions that enable clean, flexible, and affordable electricity production. The Company focuses on delivering distributed power generators that can operate on various fuel sources to future-proof against an ever-changing energy economy. It is initially targeting the commercial and waste management industries with a locally deployable generator that can offer prime power as well as energy arbitrage opportunities. In addition to stationary power solutions, it is also focused on mobile applications, including vehicles and marine technologies. The Company aims to offer innovative, yet practical solutions that contribute positively to the environment in the energy economy.

Executives

Vincent T. Cubbage	director	725 FIFTH AVE., 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey A Craig	director	MERITOR, INC., 2135 WEST MAPLE ROAD, TROY MI 48084
Knight Robert M Jr	director	UNION PACIFIC CORP, 1416 DODGE ST, OMAHA NE 68179
Cheri Lantz	officer: CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER	C/O HYLIION HOLDING CORP., 1202 BMC DRIVE, SUITE 100, CEDAR PARK TX 78613
Thomas J. Healy	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O HYLIION HOLDINGS CORP., 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Dennis M. Gallagher	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O HYLIION HOLDING CORP., 1202 BMC DRIVE, SUITE 100, CEDAR PARK TX 78613
Jon Panzer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O HYLIION HOLDING CORP., 1202 BMC DRIVE, SUITE 100, CEDAR PARK TX 78613
Card Andrew H Jr	director	5747 N 4TH STREET, ARLINGTON VA 22205
Melanie Montague Trent	director	2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 5450, HOUSTON TX 7056
Rodger L Boehm	director	165 WESTVIEW ROAD, WINNETKA IL 60093
Richard Joseph Freeland	director	927 JUNCO DRIVE, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Jose Miguel Oxholm	officer: VP, General Counsel and CCO	C/O HYLIION HOLDINGS CORP., 1202 BMC DRIVE, SUITE 100, CEDAR PARK TX 78613
Patrick Sexton	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O HYLIION HOLDINGS CORP., 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Edward E Olkkola	director	300 WEST SIXTH STREET STE.2300, AUSTIN TX 78701
Sherri Baker	director	1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275