IBRX (ImmunityBio) Predictability Rank

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What is ImmunityBio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ImmunityBio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ImmunityBio Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ImmunityBio Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ImmunityBio Inc (NAS:IBRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

26CA:Germany 26CA:Germany

Address

3530 John Hopkins Court, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.immunitybio.com

ImmunityBio Inc is a late-clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing next-generation therapies that drive immunogenic mechanisms for defeating cancers and infectious diseases. Geographically, the company operates in United States and Europe. Majority of the revenue is generated from Europe.

Executives

Patrick Soon-shiong	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See remarks	9922 JEFFERSON BOULEVARD, CULVER CITY CA 90232
California Capital Equity, Llc	10 percent owner	10182 CULVER BOULEVARD, CULVER CITY CA 90232
Nant Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	9922 JEFFERSON BOULEVARD, CULVER CITY CA 90232
Cambridge Equities, Lp	10 percent owner	9922 JEFFERSON BOULEVARD, CULVER CITY CA 90232
Mp 13 Ventures, Llc	10 percent owner	9922 JEFFERSON BOULEVARD, CULVER CITY CA 90232
Michael D Blaszyk	director	C/O NANTKWEST, INC., 2533 SOUTH COAST HIGHWAY 101, SUITE 210, CARDIFF-BY-THE-SEA CA 92007
John Owen Brennan	director	C/O IMMUNITYBIO, INC., 3530 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Wesley Clark	director	C/O ARGYLE SECURITY ACQUISITION CORP., 200 CONCORD PLAZA, SUITE 700, SAN ANTONIO TX 78216
Regan J Lauer	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	4250 EXECUTIVE SQUARE SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Richard Adcock	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O IMMUNITYBIO, INC., 3530 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Cheryl Cohen	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 201 SPEAR ST., 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Linda Maxwell	director	1040 SPRING STREET, SILVER SPRING NC 27709
Christobel Selecky	director	C/O IMMUNITYBIO, INC., 3530 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David C. Sachs	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O IMMUNITYBIO, INC., 3530 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Frederick W Driscoll	director