ICP (IC Power) Predictability Rank


What is IC Power Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IC Power Predictability Rank Related Terms

IC Power Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

IC Power Business Description

IC Power Pte Ltd is a holding company incorporated under the laws of Singapore in May 2015. The Company through its subsidiaries owns, develops and operates power facilities located in power generation markets in Latin America, the Caribbean and Israel, utilizing a range of fuels, including natural gas, hydroelectric, HFO, diesel and wind. The Company has installed capacity of approximately 2,642 MW. The Company operates in geographical areas including Peru; Israel; Central America including Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador & Panama; and other including Bolivia, Chile, Jamaica, Colombia & Dominican Republic. The Company owns, operates and develops power plants to generate and sell electricity to distribution companies and unregulated consumers under long-term PPAs and to the spot market. The Company Peru segment includes Kallpa I, Kallpa II, Kallpa III, Kallpa IV and Las Flores turbines. The Israel segment includes OPC plant. The Central America segment includes Corinto, Tipitapa Power, Amayo I, and Amayo II in Nicaragua; Puerto Quetzal plant in Guatemala; Nejapa plant in El Salvador, and Kanan plant in Panama. The Other segment includes Zongo Valley plants including Zongo, Tiquimani, Botijlaca, Cutichucho, Santa Rosa, Sainani, Chururaqui, Harca, Cahua, & Huaji; and Miguillas Valley plants including Miguillas, Angostura, Choquetanga, Carabuco, and El Alto-Kenko all in Bolivia; Central Cardones plant in Chile; Colmito plant in Colmito; CEPP I & CEPP II in Dominican Republic; JPPC plant in Jamaica; La Hocha, Purificación, and Entrerios plants in Colombia; Pedregal in Panama. The Company offers services to governments, local distribution companies, and/or non-regulated consumers, depending upon the operating company and the particular country of operation. Its customers include Edelnor S.A.A., Luz del Sur S.A.A., Hidrandina S.A., Edecañete S.A., Electro Sur Este S.A.A., Sociedad Eléctrica del Sur Oeste, S.A., Distribuidora de Electricidad del Norte S.A., Distribuidora de Electricidad del Sur S.A., Southern Perú Copper Corporation, Empresa de Distribución Eléctrica Chiriqui, S.A., Peruvian Investment Promotion Agency, Empresa de Distribución Eléctrica Metro Oeste S.A., and others. The Company's competitors include IEC, Dorad Energy Ltd., and other IPPs. The Company's business is subject to significant and diverse government regulation.