What is Immunic Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Immunic Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Immunic (Immunic) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1200 Avenue of the Americas, Suite 200, New York, NY, USA, 10036
Immunic Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing a pipeline of selective oral immunology therapies aimed at treating chronic inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, including ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, and psoriasis. The company is developing three small molecule products, which include IMU-838, which is a selective immune modulator that inhibits the intracellular metabolism of activated immune cells by blocking the enzyme DHODH; IMU-935 is an inverse agonist of RORyt, and IMU-856 targets the restoration of the intestinal barrier function.
Executives
| Glenn Whaley |
officer: PAO and Controller |
C/O PERNIX THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 10 NORTH PARK PLACE, SUITE 201, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960 |
| Richard Alan Rudick |
director |
1200 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 200, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Joerg Neermann |
director |
IMMUNIC AG, AM KLOPFERSPITZ 19, MARTINSRIED 2M 82152 |
| Daniel Vitt |
director, officer: CEO, President |
IMMUNIC AG, AM KLOPFERSPITZ 19, MARTINSRIED 2M 82152 |
| Monika Maria Toernsen |
director |
ONE COMMERCE SQUARE, 2005 MARKET STREET, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Duane Nash |
director |
C/O VITAL THERAPIES, INC., 15010 AVENUE OF SCIENCE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92128 |
| Andreas Muehler |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
1200 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 200, NEW YORK CITY NY 10036 |
| Manfred Groeppel |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
IMMUNIC AG, AM KLOPFERSPITZ 19, MARTINSRIED 2M 82152 |
| Barclay A Phillips |
director |
C/O CANCER VAX CORP, 2110 RUTHERFORD ROAD, CARLSBAD CA 92008 |
| Tamar D Howson |
director |
|
| Sanjay S Patel |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
10 N. PARK PLACE, SUITE 201, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960 |
| Claudio Nessi |
10 percent owner |
C/O NEOMED, 7 PLACE DU MOLARD, 1204 GENEVA V8 1204 |
| Anne-mari Paster |
10 percent owner |
C/O OMEGA FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC, 888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| Omega Fund V Gp, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| Lsp V Cooperatieve U.a. |
10 percent owner |
JOHANNES VERMEERPLEIN 9, AMSTERDAM P7 1071 DV |
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