What is Integrated Biopharma Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Integrated Biopharma Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Integrated Biopharma (Integrated Biopharma) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
225 Long Avenue, Building 15, Hillside, NJ, USA, 07205
Integrated Biopharma Inc is a pharmaceutical company engaged in manufacturing, distributing, marketing, and selling vitamins, nutritional supplements, and herbal products. It operates in two segments; Contract Manufacturing and Other Nutraceutical Businesses. It serves the needs of the nutraceutical industry by directly doing business as Chem International Inc. and through its operating subsidiaries; Manhattan Drug Company, Inc., AgroLabs, Inc., IHT Health Products, Inc. and MDC Warehousing and Distribution, Inc. The company generates maximum revenue from the Contract Manufacturing segment. The business operates and generates the majority of revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Damon Desantis |
director |
2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
| William H. Milmoe |
director, 10 percent owner |
3299 N.W. 2ND AVENUE, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
| Joseph Laplaca |
director |
72 EUGENE DRIVE, MONTVILLE NJ 07045 |
| E Gerald Kay |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO |
C/O 225 LONG AVENUE, HILLSIDE NJ 07205 |
| Bradley J Hoecker |
director |
STONINGTON PARTNERS, INC., 540 MADISON AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Jeffrey R Leach |
director, officer: President and CEO |
|
| Glenn Chang |
director |
C/O IBIO, INC., 9 INNOVATION WAY, SUITE 100, NEWARK DE 19711 |
| Vidadi Yusibov |
director |
C/O IBIOPHARMA, INC., 9 INNOVATION WAY, SUITE 100, NEWARK DE 19711 |
| Cd Financial, Llc |
10 percent owner |
3299 N.W. 2ND AVENUE, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
| Kay Riva |
director, officer: Vice President |
C/O 225 LONG AVENUE, HILLSIDE NJ 07205 |
| Christina Kay |
director, officer: Vive President |
C/O 225 LONG AVENUE, HILLSIDE NJ 07205 |
| Robert Canarick |
director |
C/O INTEGRATED BIOPHARMA, INC., 201 ROUTE 22, HILLSIDE NJ 07205 |
| Robert Kay |
director |
C/O IBIO, INC., 9 INNOVATION WAY, SUITE 100, NEWARK DE 19711 |
| Dina Masi |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
14 LEXINGTON WAY, LONG VALLEY NJ 07853 |
| Carl Desantis |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O CDS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS, 3299 NW SECOND AVE, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
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