INGN (Inogen) Predictability Rank

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What is Inogen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inogen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inogen Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Inogen Inc (NAS:INGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6IO:Germany

Address

859 Ward Drive, Goleta, CA, USA, 93111

Website

https://www.inogen.com

Inogen Inc is a medical technology company that develops and manufactures portable oxygen concentrators used to deliver oxygen therapy to patients with chronic respiratory conditions. Its key product, the Inogen One system, is a lightweight alternative to traditional, stationary oxygen concentrator systems and oxygen tanks. The firm sells its products to home medical equipment providers and also rents products directly to patients. Internationally, It sells its products through distributors large gas companies, and home oxygen providers. It generates the majority of its revenue in the United States.

Executives

Jason Somer	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	C/O INOGEN, INC., 301 COROMAR DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117
Thomas A. West	director	C/O INTERSECT, INC., 1555 ADAMS DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Stanislav Glezer	officer: EVP, Chief Medical Officer	C/O INOGEN, INC., 326 BOLLAY DRIVE., GOLETA CA 93117
Glenn S Boehnlein	director	2825 AIRVIEW BLVD, KALAMAZOO MI 49002
Mary Kay Ladone	director	130 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60601
Kevin M King	director	C/O AFFYMETRIX, INC., 3420 CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Kristin A. Caltrider	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O INOGEN, INC., 301 COROMAR DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117
Anderson Ray Benjamin M	director	1100 NORTH WASHINGTON STREET, DELPHI IN 46923
Michael K. Sergesketter	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	301 COROMAR DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117
Raymond Huggenberger	director, officer: See Remarks	326 BOLLAY DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117
Alison Bauerlein	officer: See Remarks	326 BOLLAY DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117
Brenton Taylor	officer: Vice President, Engineering	326 BOLLAY DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117
Elizabeth Mora	director	C/O MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC., 2 TECH DRIVE, SUITE 201, ANDOVER MA 01810
George J Parr	director	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Byron Myers	officer: Vice President, Marketing	326 BOLLAY DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117