What is Item 9 Labs Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Item 9 Labs Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Item 9 Labs (Item 9 Labs) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2111 E. Highland Avenue, Suite B375, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85016
Item 9 Labs Corp is a vertically integrated cannabis operator and dispensary franchisor delivering premium products from its large-scale cultivation and production facilities in the United States. The Item 9 Labs brand specializes in products and user experience across several cannabis categories. The company also offers a dispensary franchise model through the national Unity Rd. retail brand. Easing barriers to entry, the franchise provides an opportunity for both new and existing dispensary owners to leverage the knowledge, resources, and ongoing support needed to thrive in their state compliantly and successfully. It also brings industry practices to markets nationwide through distinctive retail experience, cultivation capabilities, and product innovation.
Executives
| Taylor Lawrence X. Iii |
director |
2727 N 3RD STREET, SUITE 201, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Eric Kutscher |
director |
2727 N 3RD STREET, SUITE 201, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Michael P Keskey |
director |
C/O ITEM 9 LABS, 2727 N. 3RD STREET, SUITE 201, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Douglas P Bowden |
director |
C/O ITEM 9 LABS 2727 N. 3RD STREET., SUITE 201, PHOENIX AZ 85004 |
| Christopher Leland Wolven |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
5743 N 19TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Sara Gullickson |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1709 BETHANY RD, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Andrew Douglas Bowden |
director |
3621 N 39TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85018 |
| Robert E Mikkelsen |
officer: CFO, Secretary, Treasurer |
2033 N OVERFIELD RD, CASA GRANDE AZ 85194 |
| Patrick Sean Dugan |
10 percent owner |
2033 N OVERFIELD RD, CASA GRANDE AZ 85194 |
| Andrew Poirier |
10 percent owner |
1946 E RANCHO DR, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Bryce Skalla |
director, officer: President |
2033 N OVERFIELD RD, CASA GRANDE AZ 85194 |
| Cohen Daniel E Md |
director, officer: President |
10035 GRISTMILL RIDGE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347 |
| Hayjour Family Limited Partnership |
director, officer: President & CEO |
10799 N 90TH STREET, SUITE 200, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
| Jessica L Smith |
officer: CFO, Secretary, Treasurer |
8399 E. INDIAN SCHOOL RD., SUITE 202, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251 |
| Lorrie Henderson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
8399 E INDIAN SCHOOL RD, SUITE 202, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251 |
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