Inspire Medical Systems (Inspire Medical Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Inspire Medical Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inspire Medical Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inspire Medical Systems (Inspire Medical Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Inspire Medical Systems Inc (NYSE:INSP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2DR:Germany 2DR:Germany

Address

5500 Wayzata Boulevard, Suite 1600, Golden Valley, MN, USA, 55416

Website

https://www.inspiresleep.com

Inspire Medical Systems Inc operates as a medical technology company. It focuses on the development and commercialization of minimally invasive solutions for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). It offers Inspire system, a neurostimulation technology that provides a safe and effective treatment for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea. The firm has operating footprints in the United States and Europe wherein, it generates a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Timothy P. Herbert	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Jerry C Griffin	director	887L INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Carlton Weatherby	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Steven Jandrich	officer: Chief Comp Off & VP, Human Res	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Philip Ebeling	officer: Chief Operating Officer	INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 5500 WAYZATA BLVD., SUITE 1600, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
John Rondoni	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Richard Buchholz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Randy Ban	officer: Senior VP. & Sales & Marketing	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Marilyn C Nelson	director	C/O EXXON MOBIL CORP, 5959 LAS COLINAS BLVD., IRVING TX 75039-2298
Cynthia Burks	director	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Charisse Y Sparks	director	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 9700 63RD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 200, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Georgia Melenikiotou	director	C/O INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 5500 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 1600, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Bryan K Phillips	officer: See Remarks	9924 WEST 74TH STREET, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Shelley G. Broader	director	880 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33702
Casey M Tansey	director, 10 percent owner	2735 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025