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Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalarinayi Ve Ticaret AS (IST:BRSAN) Predictability Rank


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What is Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalarinayi Ve Ticaret AS Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalarinayi Ve Ticaret AS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalarinayi Ve Ticaret AS Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalarinayi Ve Ticaret AS Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalari Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS (IST:BRSAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
IST:BRYAT IST:KRDMA IST:KCAER IST:ISDMR IST:CEMTS IST:IZMDC IST:DOKTA IST:BMSTL IST:ERCB IST:DOFER BOM:500228 NUE XAMS:MT TSE:5401 NSE:TATASTEEL SHSE:600019 STLD RS XKRX:005490 SHSE:600010
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Meclisi Mebusan Caddesi No. 35 – 37, Salipazari, Istanbul, TUR, 34427
Website
https://www.borusanmannesmann.com
Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalari Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS Formerly Borusan Mannesmann Boru Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is a steel tube and pipes manufacturer. The company's product portfolio includes gas pipes, water pipes, general purpose pipes, OCTG pipes, line pipe, precision tubes, heavy wall welded tubes, first fire protection systems, and easy flow fire protection sprinkler pipes. It provides products for various projects such as The NK1 Oil Pipeline, The Sahdeniz, The Blue Stream, Hungary Gas Pipeline, and TANAP projects. It exports products to various countries in Americas, Europe, Africa and Asia.

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