PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ISX:ARKO) Predictability Rank

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

ISX:ARKO PT Arkora Hydro Tbk ISX:ARKO
74 GF Score
Price Rp5,700.00
GF Value Rp1,754.67
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is PT Arkora Hydro Tbk Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PT Arkora Hydro Tbk Predictability Rank Related Terms

ISX:ARKO
74GF Score
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk ISX:ARKO
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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PT Arkora Hydro Tbk Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ISX:ARKO) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Arkora Hydro Tbk stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of Rp5,700.00 is trading 224.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of Rp1,754.67. GuruFocus considers PT Arkora Hydro Tbk to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ISX:ARKO:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: Rp1,754.67 vs. price of Rp5,700.00 (224.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 74/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ISX:ARKO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

PT Arkora Hydro Tbk Business Description

Address Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav 52-53, SCBD Lot 28, Treasury Tower, Level 9, Unit G-H, District 8, Jakarta, IDN, 12190
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is dedicated to the development and operation of hydropower plants in Indonesia. The company owns and develops hydropower plant facilities that operate in a run-of-river fashion throughout Indonesia. The run-of-river hydropower plant is the type of power plant where little or no water storage is needed. The company's reportable segments are; the 7.4 MW mini hydro powerplant in Cikopo (West Java), the 10 MW mini hydro power plant in Tomasa (Sulawesi Tengah), the 10 MW minihydro electric power plant in Yaentu (Central Sulawesi), the 5.4 MW minihydro electric power plant in Kukusan (Lampung), and the 10 MW minihydro electric power plant in Tomoni (Sulawesi Selatan), and other construction services.
74GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ISX:ARKO

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

Rp5,700.00
Price
Rp1,754.67
GF Value