PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk (ISX:SGER) Predictability Rank


ISX:SGER PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk ISX:SGER
74 GF Score
Price Rp372.00
GF Value Rp227.39
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk Predictability Rank Related Terms

ISX:SGER
74GF Score
PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk ISX:SGER
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk (ISX:SGER) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of Rp372.00 is trading 63.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of Rp227.39. GuruFocus considers PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ISX:SGER:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: Rp227.39 vs. price of Rp372.00 (63.6% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 74/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ISX:SGER stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk Business Description

Other Exchanges SW4:Germany
Address Jalan Gatot Subroto Kav. 23, Graha BIP, Lantai 2, Karet Semanggi, Setiabudi Jakarta Selatan, DKI Jakarta, Jakarta, IDN, 12930
PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk is a wholesale trader of solid, liquid, and gaseous energies. Its main business currently is coal trading, mostly to the export market (China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia) as well as the local market. Along with its subsidiaries, it is also engaged in trading biomass products (such as wood pellets, palm kernel shells, RBD palm olein, etc.), supplies nickel, limestone, and hydrogen peroxide, and offers a full range of international commodity freight services, including sourcing, marketing, trading, finance, and logistics. The Group's operating segments are: Coal, Nickel, Petroleum coke, Oil palm product, Sand and Limestone, Contractor, and Fuel. The majority of its revenue is generated from the Coal segment.
74GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ISX:SGER

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

Rp372.00
Price
Rp227.39
GF Value