Kineta (Kineta) Predictability Rank

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What is Kineta Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kineta Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kineta Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Kineta (Kineta) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kineta Inc (NAS:KA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

J75:Germany

Address

219 Terry Avenue North, Suite 300, Seattle, WA, USA, 98109

Website

https://www.kinetabio.com

Kineta Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a mission to develop next generation immunotherapies that transform patients' lives. The company's asset is KVA12.1, a VISTA blocking immunotherapy.

Executives

Raymond J. Bartoszek	director	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Shawn Iadonato	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Craig W. Philips	officer: President	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Pauline Kenny	officer: General Counsel	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Keith Baker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Thierry Guillaudeux	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Scott J. Dylla	director	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Marion R Foote	director	C/O KINETA, INC., 219 TERRY AVE. N., SUITE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Michael D Wyzga	officer: See Remarks	C/O YUMANITY, INC., 40 GUEST STREET, SUITE 4410, BOSTON MA 02135
Devin Whittemore Smith	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 286, WALTHAM MA 02451
Kimberlee C Drapkin	director	PREDIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS, INC., 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Ajay Verma	officer: EVP, Head of R&D	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 35 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Lynne Zydowsky	director	C/O YUMANITY THERAPEUTICS, INC., 40 GUEST STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Susan L. Lindquist Exempt Marital Trust	10 percent owner	C/O NANCY E. DEMPZE, HEMENWAY & BARNES, LLP, 75 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Susan L. Lindquist Massachusetts Non-exempt Marital Trust	10 percent owner	C/O NANCY DEMPZE, HEMENWAY & BARNES, LLP, 75 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109