KITT (Nauticus Robotics) Predictability Rank

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What is Nauticus Robotics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nauticus Robotics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nauticus Robotics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Nauticus Robotics Inc (NAS:KITT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

17146 Feathercraft Lane, Suite 450, Webster, TX, USA, 77598

Website

https://www.nauticusrobotics.com

Nauticus Robotics Inc develops fully electric autonomous robotic solutions for subsea applications. The company's business model includes using robotic systems for service, selling vehicles and components, and licensing related software to both the commercial and defense business sectors. The company's addressable markets include upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas, defense, offshore renewables, seafloor telecommunications, aquaculture, port security, oceanographic research, and subsea mining.

Executives

Gibson John W Jr	director, officer: President	10603 W. SAM HOUSTON PKWY N., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77064
William Flores	director	25 BEACON HILL, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Nicolaus Radford	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NAUTICUS ROBOTICS, INC., 17146 FEATHER CRAFT LN #450, WEBSTER TX 77598
Donnelly A. Bohan	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O NAUTICUS ROBOTICS, INC., 17146 FEATHER CRAFT LN #450, WEBSTER TX 77598
John Yamokoski	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O NAUTICUS ROBOTICS, INC., 17146 FEATHER CRAFT LN #450, WEBSTER TX 77598
Nicholas J. Bigney	officer: General Counsel	15710 ELKINS CREEK COURT, HOUSTON TX 77044
Lisa J. Porter	director	C/O NAUTICUS ROBOTICS, INC., 17146 FEATHER CRAFT LN #450, WEBSTER TX 77598
Transocean Inc	10 percent owner	4 GREENWAY PLAZA, HOUSTON TX 77046
Tommy W Matura	officer: Vice President of Accounting	101 COURAGEOUS DRIVE, LEAGUE CITY TX 77573
Transocean Ltd.	10 percent owner	TURMSTRASSE 30, STEINHAUSEN V8 6312
Dilshad Kasmani	officer: Chief LAO	C/O NAUTICUS ROBOTICS, INC., 17146 FEATHER CRAFT LN #450, WEBSTER TX 77598
B.v. Schlumberger	10 percent owner	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Schlumberger Holdings Corp	10 percent owner	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Schlumberger Technology Corp	10 percent owner	300 SCHLUMBERGER DRIVE, MD 23, SUGAR LAND TX 77478
Limited/nv Schlumberger	10 percent owner	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056