KRT (Karat Packaging) Predictability Rank

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What is Karat Packaging Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Karat Packaging Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Karat Packaging Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Karat Packaging Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Karat Packaging Inc (NAS:KRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6185 Kimball Avenue, Chino, CA, USA, 91708

Website

https://www.karatpackaging.com

Karat Packaging Inc is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of disposable products used in restaurants and food service settings. It offers products for the foodservice industry, including food packaging, containers, tableware, cups, lids, cutlery, and straws. These products are available in plastic, paper, biopolymer-based and other compostable forms. Its product line includes a variety of brands such as Tea Zone, Karat, Karat Earth, and Total Clean.

Executives

Wang Joanne Tzu Jung	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6185 KIMBALL AVE., CHINO CA 91708
Daniel Quire	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	6185 KIMBALL AVENUE, CHINO CA 91708
Marvin Cheng	officer: VP-Manufacturing, Secy	6185 KIMBALL AVE., CHINO CA 91708
Alan Yu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman of the BOD	6185 KIMBALL AVE., CHINO CA 91708
Jian Guo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6185 KIMBALL AVENUE, CHINO CA 91708
Eve Yen	director	4651 SCHAEFER AVENUE, CHINO CA 91710
Peter Lee	officer: Interim CFO	6185 KIMBALL AVENUE, CHINO CA 91708
Ann T Sabahat	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11 MUSICK, IRVINE CA 92618
Paul Y Chen	director	9660 FLAIR DR, STE 300, EL MONTE CA 91731
Eric K Chen	director	6330 SPRING MOUNTAIN RD, STE D, LAS VEGAS NV 89146