National Real Estate Co KSC (KUW:NRE) Predictability Rank


KUW:NRE National Real Estate Co KSC KUW:NRE
16 GF Score
Price KWD0.12
GF Value KWD0.03
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 10 Warning Signs
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What is National Real Estate Co KSC Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Real Estate Co KSC Predictability Rank Related Terms

KUW:NRE
16GF Score
National Real Estate Co KSC KUW:NRE
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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National Real Estate Co KSC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is National Real Estate Co KSC (KUW:NRE) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Real Estate Co KSC stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of KWD0.12 is trading 286.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of KWD0.03. GuruFocus considers National Real Estate Co KSC to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for KUW:NRE:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: KWD0.03 vs. price of KWD0.12 (286.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 16/100 with 10 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the KUW:NRE stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

National Real Estate Co KSC Business Description

Address Al-Shuhada Street, P.O. Box 22644, 58th Floor, Al-Hamra Tower, Sharq, Safat, Kuwait, KWT, 13087
National Real Estate Co KSC (NREC) is a real estate investment and development company. The company is engaged in the purchase, development, and sale of land, management of real estate properties, real estate construction, and maintenance services. The company reports in two segments: Real Estate and others, which include development, trading, leasing, and management of real estate properties and other activities, and the Investments segment, which consists of investments in an associate, joint venture, and equity securities. The portfolio of company projects includes Residential, Malls, commercial, industrial, warehousing, and resorts. NREC has development projects in the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, and Libya.
16GF Score

Get the complete analysis for KUW:NRE

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

KWD0.12
Price
KWD0.03
GF Value