LGL (LGL Group) Predictability Rank

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What is LGL Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LGL Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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LGL Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » LGL Group Inc (AMEX:LGL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2525 Shader Road, Orlando, FL, USA, 32804

Website

https://www.lglgroup.com

LGL Group Inc is a holding company engaged in services, merchant investment and manufacturing business activities. The company has two reportable segments; Electronic Instruments and Merchant Investment. The Electronic Instruments segment, which generates key revenue, is focused on designing and manufacturing high-performance Frequency and Time reference standards that form the basis for timing and synchronization in various applications including satellite communication, time transfer systems, network synchronization, electricity distribution, and metrology. The Merchant Investment segment comprises various investment vehicles in which the company invests its capital.

Executives

Herve Francois	director	4 BRIDLE PATH, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08648
Darlene T Deremer	director	200 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1850, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33701
Linda M Biles	officer: VP, Controller	2525 SHADER ROAD, ORLANDO FL 32804
James William Tivy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	220 E. CENTRAL PARKWAY, SUITE 2060, ALTAMONTE SPRINGS FL 32701
Bel Lazar	director	4705 S. APOPKA VINELAND ROAD, SUITE 201, ORLANDO FL 32819
Ferrantino Michael J Jr	director	12 MARTINGALE LANE, ANDOVER MA 01810
Ivan Arteaga	director, officer: CEO	497 EISENHOWER COURT, WYCKOFF NJ 07481
John S Mega	director	C/O L-3 COMMUNICATIONS CORPORATION, 600 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Lapenta Robert V Jr	director	C/O ASTON CAPITAL, 177 BROAD ST., 12TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
Mario J Gabelli	director, 10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Joan Atkinson	officer: CAO	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06907
Patrick Huvane	officer: Senior Vice President	780 THIRD AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Michael J Ferrantino	director
Hendi Susanto	director	2525 SHADER RD., ORLANDO FL 32804
Salerno Frederic V Jr	director	2525 SHADER RD., ORLANDO FL 32804