What is Semper Paratus Acquisition Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Semper Paratus Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Semper Paratus Acquisition (Semper Paratus Acquisition) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
767 Third Avenue, 38th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Semper Paratus Acquisition Corp is a special purpose acquisition company incorporated for the purpose of effecting a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses.
Executives
| Corbin Erisa Opportunity Fund, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
590 MADISON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Michael L Peterson |
director |
17 CANARY COURT, DANVILLE CA 94526 |
| Ssvk Associates, Llc |
10 percent owner |
8911 REGENTS PARK DRIVE, SUITE 550, TAMPA FL 33647 |
| Scott Harris Sussman |
director |
616 POPPY AVE, CORONA DEL MAR CA 92625 |
| Avinash R Wadhwani |
director |
3 YARD COURT, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822 |
| Donald G. Fell |
director |
17537 DARBY LANE, LUTZ FL 33558 |
| Surendra K Ajjarapu |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman |
8604 BUTTON BUSH CT, TAMPA FL 33647 |
| Knuettel Ii Francis |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
205 NEWBURY ST, SUITE 204, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701 |
| Corbin Capital Partners, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
590 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Corbin Capital Partners Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
590 MADISON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Jeff Rogers |
officer: President |
720 SPYGLASS HILL, HOLLAND MI 49424 |
| Semper Paratus Sponsor Llc |
10 percent owner |
767 THIRD AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Philippe J Kurzweil |
officer: CFO & Secretary |
C/O SEMPER PARATUS ACQUISITION CORP., 767 THIRD AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Parizad Olver |
director |
C/O SEMPER PARATUS ACQUISITION CORP., 767 THIRD AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Brad Stewart |
director |
C/O SEMPER PARATUS ACQUISITION CORP., 767 THIRD AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
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