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LIFD (LFTD Partners) Predictability Rank


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What is LFTD Partners Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LFTD Partners Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

LFTD Partners Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of LFTD Partners's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

LFTD Partners Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » LFTD Partners Inc (OTCPK:LIFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
STEK CLSH MSTH ABTI CPHI EVOK SBFM BUDZ CANB SNOA ZTS XTER:MRK NSE:SUNPHARMA TSE:4502 LSE:HLN XSWX:GALD XSWX:SDZ HKSE:03692 NSE:DIVISLAB XTAE:TEVA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
14155 Pine Island Drive, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32224
Website
https://www.lftdpartners.com
LFTD Partners Inc along with its subsidiaries manufactures and sales a variety of branded, hemp-derived, psychoactive and alternative lifestyle products, and of products involving nicotine, tobacco and marijuana. Its subsidiary is Lifted Made (Lifted), which manufactures and sells hemp-derived cannabinoids, psychoactive substances and other alternative lifestyle products, including nicotine products under its Urb Finest Flowers (Urb) brand. Products sold by Lifted include disposable vapes and cartridges, gummies, joints, blunts, and products containing ingredients, such as kanna, muscimol, ashwagandha and kava.
Executives
Gerard M. Jacobs director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 31 N. SUFFOLK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Joshua A Bloom director 31 N. SUFFOLK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Richard Emmet Morrissy director 31 N. SUFFOLK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Warrender Robert Thomas Ii director PO BOX 4233, ANTIOCH IL 600002
Kevin J. Rocio director 31 N SUFFOLK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Nicholas S. Warrender director 31 N SUFFOLK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
William C. Jacobs officer: CFO 301 MISSION DRIVE #383, NEW SMYRNA BEACH FL 32168
Thomas W. Hines director 748 FLINT TRAIL, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60012
James Stephen Jacobs director 31 N. SUFFOLK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Roger S Greene director 3330 CAMINITO DANIELLA, DEL MAR CA 92014
Michael D Mccaffrey director 31 N. SUFFOLK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Vincent J Mesolella director 300 N MANNHEIM ROAD, HILLSIDE IL 60162