LMAT (LeMaitre Vascular) Predictability Rank

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What is LeMaitre Vascular Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LeMaitre Vascular Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

LeMaitre Vascular Predictability Rank Related Terms

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LeMaitre Vascular Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » LeMaitre Vascular Inc (NAS:LMAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LHU:Germany

Address

63 Second Avenue, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803

Website

https://www.lemaitre.com

LeMaitre Vascular Inc manufactures and distributes medical devices for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease. Its products are used during open vascular surgery and address several anatomical areas, such as the carotid, lower extremities, upper extremities, and aorta. The firm's lower extremities product line contributes towards the proportion of revenue, followed by the carotid product line. LeMaitre's surgical devices include angioscopes, balloon catheters, carotid shunts, phlebectomy devices, vascular grafts, vascular patches and vessel closure systems.It has a single operating segment engaged in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of medical devices and implants, as well as the processing and cryopreservation of human tissues for implantation in patients.

Executives

Trent G Kamke	officer: Senior V. P., Operations	61 WILLOWDEAN AVENUE, WEST ROXBURY MA 02132
Lawrence J Jasinski	director	SOTEIRA INC., 14 TECH CIRCLE, NATICK MA 01760
Bridget A Ross	director	C/O HENRY SCHEIN, INC., 135 DURYEA ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Martha Shadan	director	9201 W BROADWAY AVE, #650, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55445
David B Roberts	director, officer: CFO and Director	55 BRADFORD STREET, NEEDHAM MA 02492
George W Lemaitre	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	342 BUNKER HILL STREET, #2B, CHARLESTOWN MA 02129
John A Roush	director	C/O GSI GROUP INC., 125 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BEDFORD MA 01730-1409
Pellegrino Joseph P Jr	officer: Executive V.P. Finance	68 BEACON STREET, BOSTON MA 02108
Michael H Thomas	director	P.O. BOX 2207, NOKOMIS FL 34274-2207
Peter R Gebauer	officer: President, International OP	AM WALDFELD 17, BAD SODEN 2M 65812
Michael T Wijas	officer: VP of Sales, The Americas	C/O LEMAITRE VASCULAR, INC., 63 SECOND AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Lemaitre Cornelia W	director, officer: V.P., Human Resources,Director	8 SUNSET ROCK ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
Russell D Hays	director	C/O BIOSOURCE INTERNATIONAL INC, 542 FLYNN RD, CAMARILLO CA 93012
Robert V Linden	officer: VP, North American Sales	236 WOODEN BRIDGE ROAD, HOLLAND PA 18966
Thorndike William N Jr	director	HOUSATONIC PARTNERS, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 2220, BOSTON MA 02199