LENSAR (LENSAR) Predictability Rank

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What is LENSAR Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LENSAR Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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LENSAR (LENSAR) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » LENSAR Inc (NAS:LNSR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2800 Discovery Drive, Orlando, FL, USA, 32826

Website

https://www.lensar.com

LENSAR Inc is a commercial-stage medical device company focused on designing, developing and marketing a femtosecond laser system for the treatment of cataracts. The company Laser System incorporates a range of proprietary technologies designed to assist the surgeon in obtaining visual outcomes, efficiency and reproducibility by providing imaging, simplified procedure planning, efficient design and precision. Its product portfolio consists of the LENSAR Laser System with Streamline IV and IntelliAxis and its associated consumable components. The consumable portion of the system consists of a disposable patient interface device, or PID, kit and a procedure license. Each procedure on each system requires the use of a PID kit.

Executives

Gary M Winer	director	C/O LENSAR, INC., 2800 DISCOVERY DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32826
Aimee S Weisner	director	ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Nr-gri Partners Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	867 BOYLSTON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, #1361, BOSTON MA 02116
Nr-gri Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	867 BOYLSTON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, #1361, BOSTON MA 02116
Todd B Hammer	director, 10 percent owner	NORTH RUN CAPITAL PARTNERS, 867 BOYLSTON ST., 5TH FLOOR, #1361, BOSTON MA 02116
Thomas B Ellis	director, 10 percent owner	867 BOYLSTON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, #1361, BOSTON MA 02116
North Run Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	62 WALNUT STREET, WELLESLEY MA 02481
North Run Capital, Lp	10 percent owner	867 BOYLSTON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, #1361, BOSTON MA 02116
Staab Thomas R Ii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INSPIRE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4222 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Kendra Wong	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O LENSAR, INC., 2800 DISCOVERY DRIVE, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826
Elizabeth G. O'farrell	director	932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD., INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Alan B. Connaughton	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O LENSAR, INC., 2800 DISCOVERY DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32826
Nicholas T Curtis	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O STAAR SURGICAL CO, 1911 WALKER AVE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Pdl Biopharma, Inc.	10 percent owner	59 DAMONTE RANCH PARKWAY, SUITE B-375, RENO NV 89521
Lindstrom Richard L Md	director	2811 WESTWOOD PL, WAYZATA MN 55391