Comstock (Comstock) Predictability Rank

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What is Comstock Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Comstock Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Comstock Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Comstock (Comstock) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Comstock Inc (AMEX:LODE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GSP:Germany

Address

117 American Flat Road, Virginia City, NV, USA, 89440

Website

https://www.comstock.inc

Comstock Inc is engaged in technologies that efficiently use wasted and under-utilized natural resources to produce renewable energy and other products that contribute to balancing uses and emissions of carbon and enhance mineral and material discoveries. It has three operating segments; The renewable energy segment consists of technology and engineering services sales, licenses, royalties, demonstration plants and equipment, and research and development expenses, The mining segment consists of mining, mine development, metal processing, and environmental and reclamation operations, and The strategic and other investments segment includes all other activities, including investments in non-mining real estate and its equity method investments.

Executives

Leo M Drozdoff	director	1200 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
William Joseph Mccarthy	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1200 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
Mayaguez J Salinas	director	117 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
Kristin Slanina	director	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
David Winsness	officer: Chief Technology Officer	117 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
Kevin Kreisler	officer: President	P.O. BOX 284, MT. ARLINGTON NJ 07856
Rahul Bobbili	officer: Chief Process Engineer	1200 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
Marting Walter A. Jr	director	11055 VINCENT LANE, RENO NV 89511
William John Nance	director	11620 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Judd Merrill	director	2425 CROOKED CANYON CT., RENO NV 89521
John Clark Gillam	director	PO BOX 1118,1800 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
Giron Juan Carlos Jr.	officer: CFO and President	777 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Degasperis Corrado F	officer: CEO, Pres., PFO, CRO	C/O COMSTOCK MINING INC., 117 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
Timothy Dwinell Smith	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1200 AMERICAN FLAT ROAD, VIRGINIA CITY NV 89440
John V Winfield	director, 10 percent owner	11620 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, LOS ANGELES CA 90025