GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Fidelity China Special Situations PLC (LSE:FCSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Fidelity China Special Situations (LSE:FCSS) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is Fidelity China Special Situations Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fidelity China Special Situations Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fidelity China Special Situations Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fidelity China Special Situations's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Fidelity China Special Situations (LSE:FCSS) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Fidelity China Special Situations PLC (LSE:FCSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
LSE:ASL LSE:IEM LSE:ATT LSE:LWDB LSE:RICA LSE:OTV2 LSE:EDIN LSE:HRI LSE:BBGI LSE:BPCR BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
FCSSl:UK
Address
Beech Gate, Millfield Lane, Lower Kingswood, Tadworth, Surrey, GBR, KT20 6RP
Website
https://www.fidelity.co.uk
Fidelity China Special Situations PLC is an investment company. Its investment objective is to achieve long-term capital growth from an actively managed portfolio. The company focuses on investing in securities issued by companies listed in China or Hong Kong and any other Chinese companies listed elsewhere as well as the companies which have interests in China and Hong Kong. Its portfolio consists of various financial instruments such as equities, index-linked, equity-linked and other debt securities, cash deposits, money market instruments, foreign currency exchange transactions, equity-related securities, forward transactions, and derivative instruments. The company may use gearing such as Contracts for Difference to meet its determined investment goals.

Fidelity China Special Situations (LSE:FCSS) Headlines

No Headlines