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Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG (LTS:09II) Predictability Rank


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What is Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG (LTS:09II) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XTER:BMW XTER:VOW3 XTER:MBG XTER:PAH3 TSLA TSE:7203 SZSE:002594 MIL:RACE GM TSE:7267 NSE:MARUTI NSE:M&M F XKRX:005380 NSE:TATAMOTORS SHSE:601127 MIL:STLAM BOM:532977 SHSE:600104 XKRX:000270
Traded in Other Exchanges
DRPRY:USA DRPRF:USA 1PORS:Italy P911d:UK P911:Germany P911:Austria
Address
Porscheplatz 1, Stuttgart, BW, DEU, 70435
Website
https://www.porsche.com
Porsche designs, engineers, and manufactures premium cars synonymous with its racing history heritage, engineering mastery, sporty design, and driving experience. Porsche is uniquely positioned in that its brand is associated with luxury. However, it produces cars on a much larger scale than its superluxury peers. Porsche sold 311,000 vehicles in 2024 at an average price of EUR 129,000. Europe, North America, mainland China including Hong Kong, and the rest of the world accounted for 36%, 28%, 18%, and 18% of volumes in 2024, respectively. Ninety-two percent of revenue is generated from the sale of cars and related services, with the remainder from its captive finance arm. Porsche's equity is tightly held with Volkswagen owning 75.4% and Porsche SE (the Porsche/Piëch family) owning 12.5%.

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG Headlines

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