A P Moller Maersk AS (LTS:0O76) Predictability Rank

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

LTS:0O76 A P Moller Maersk AS LTS:0O76
69 GF Score
Price kr16,785.00
GF Value kr12,343.11
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 10 Warning Signs
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What is A P Moller Maersk AS Predictability Rank?

2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

A P Moller Maersk AS Predictability Rank Related Terms

LTS:0O76
69GF Score
A P Moller Maersk AS LTS:0O76
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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A P Moller Maersk AS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is A P Moller Maersk AS (LTS:0O76) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, A P Moller Maersk AS stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of kr16,785.00 is trading 36% above its estimated GF Value™ of kr12,343.11. GuruFocus considers A P Moller Maersk AS to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for LTS:0O76:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: kr12,343.11 vs. price of kr16,785.00 (36% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 69/100 with 10 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LTS:0O76 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

A P Moller Maersk AS Business Description

Address Esplanaden 50, Copenhagen, DNK, 1263
Denmark-listed A.P. Moller-Maersk operates trade, shipping, logistics, and terminal assets globally. The oceans segment, the largest contributor to group revenue and earnings, has the second-largest oceangoing shipping capacity globally. Maersk has acquired several logistics firms in the past couple of years and plans for the segment to be the company's growth engine. Over the past few years, Maersk has divested noncore operations, including its long-standing stakes in Danske Bank and Dansk Supermarked, as well as its oil and gas operations and ocean towing.
69GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LTS:0O76

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

kr16,785.00
Price
kr12,343.11
GF Value