Lithium (Lithium) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is Lithium Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lithium Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lithium Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lithium's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Lithium (Lithium) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Lithium Corp (OTCPK:LTUM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1031 Railroad Street, Suite 102B, Elko, NV, USA, 89801

Website

https://www.lithiumcorporation.com

Lithium Corp is an exploration company based in Nevada. It is engaged in the identification, acquisition, and exploration of metals and minerals. Lithium Corporation is currently exploring two wholly owned prospects located in the State of Nevada, USA and two prospects in British Columbia, Canada. The company's properties include Fish Lake property, San Emidio property, Mount Heimdal Flake Graphite property and BC Sugar Flake Graphite property.

Executives

Dr Borenstein Ltd	10 percent owner	18 REINES ST, TEL AVIV L3 00000
Tom Lewis	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President/Secretary/Treasurer	1958 NEWHAVEN LOOP, RICHLAND WA 99352
Alexander Richard Walsh	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President / CEO	320 E. FAIRMONT DR, TEMPE AZ 85282
Brian O'connell Goss	director	1031 RAILROAD STREET, SUITE 102B, ELKO NV 89801
James Stuart Brown	director	APARTMENT PEARL GARDEN, UNIT NO. WP00606, JL. JEN. GATOT SUBROTO KAV 5-7, JAKARTA K8 12930
John G Webster	director	224 W. 16TH AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99203
John E Hiner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: VP of Exploration	9443 AXLUND ROAD, LYNDEN WA 98264
Henry H Tonking	director	PO BOX 6545, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Mazen Hleiss	director, officer: President/Secretary/Treasurer	999 - 3RD AVE #3800, SEATTLE WA 98104