What is Medalist Diversified REIT Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Medalist Diversified REIT Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Medalist Diversified REIT Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
P.O. Box 8436, Richmond, VA, USA, 23226
Medalist Diversified REIT Inc is engaged to acquire, reposition, renovate, lease, and manage income-producing properties with a focus on commercial properties, including flex-industrial and retail properties, multi-family residential properties, and hotel properties. The company operates as a UPREIT and owns properties through its subsidiary, Medalist Diversified Holdings, LP. Its reportable segments were retail center properties, flex center properties, and STNL properties.
Executives
| Winn Charles Brent Jr. |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
9601 CRAGMONT DRIVE, RICHMOND VA 23229 |
| Benjamin Ore |
other: Senior Accountant |
12215 HAMPTON VALLEY TURN, CHESTERFIELD VA 23832 |
| Frank Kavanaugh |
director, 10 percent owner |
3419 VIA LIDO, SUITE 470, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92663 |
| Timothy Patrick O'brien |
director |
7504 HACKAMORE DRIVE, POTOMAC MD 20854 |
| Neil P Farmer |
director |
7 SHADOW LANE, RICHMOND VA 23229 |
| Emanuel D Neuman |
director |
C/O MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC., PO BOX 8436, RICHAMOND VA 23226 |
| David Lunin |
director |
C/O MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC., PO BOX 8436, RICHMOND VA 23226 |
| Elliott Colin |
other: Vice President |
2915 MONUMENT AVE., RICHMOND VA 23221 |
| Alfred Lee Finley |
10 percent owner |
2800 GOLDEN TRIANGLE BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76177 |
| Thomas E Messier |
director, officer: See Remarks |
11 S. 12TH STREET, SUITE 401, RICHMOND VA 23219 |
| Alf Operating Partners, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
2800 GOLDEN TRIANGLE BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76177 |
| Susan Finley |
10 percent owner |
2800 GOLDEN TRIANGLE BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76177 |
| Alf Acquisitions Company, Llc |
10 percent owner |
2800 GOLDEN TRIANGLE BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76177 |
| Bitnile Holdings, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141 |
| Dianna Raedle |
director |
240 CENTRAL PARK SOUTH, APT 6B, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
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