MedAvail Holdings (MedAvail Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is MedAvail Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MedAvail Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MedAvail Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MedAvail Holdings (MedAvail Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » MedAvail Holdings Inc (OTCPK:MDVLQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4720 East Cotton Gin Loop, Suite 220, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85040

Website

https://www.medavail.com

MedAvail Holdings Inc is a telehealth-enabled pharmacy technology company. It operates in two segments: Retail Pharmacy Services and Pharmacy Technology. It generates the majority of revenue from the Retail Pharmacy Services segment, which is into operating SpotRx, a full-service retail pharmacy utilizing MedAvail's automated pharmacy technology, primarily servicing Medicare patients in the United States. The Pharmacy Technology segment develops and commercializes the MedCenter for direct sale or lease to third-party customers.

Executives

Ramona Seabaugh	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MEDAVAIL TECHNOLOGIES INC., 6665 MILLCREEK DR, UNIT 1, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5N 5M4
Michael R Kramer	director	3910 BRICKWAY BLVD, SANTA ROSA CA 95403
Paul D Johnson	director	440 N BARRANCA AVE #3550, COVINA CA 91723
Glen D. Stettin	director	C/O EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING COMPANY, ONE EXPRESS WAY, ST. LOUIS MO 63121
Mark Edward Doerr	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MEDAVAIL TECHNOLOGIES INC., 6665 MILLCREEK DR, UNIT 1, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5N 5M4
Abg Wtt-medavail Ltd	10 percent owner	15 QUEENS ROAD CENTRAL, UNIT 3002-3004, 30TH FLOOR, GLOUCESTER TWR, THE LANDMARK, HONG KONG F4 0000000000
Redco Ii Master Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BLDG D, STE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Alyeska Fund Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Alyeska Investment Group, Llc	10 percent owner	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Alyeska Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Anand Parekh	10 percent owner	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Alyeska Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Alyeska Investment Group, L.p.	10 percent owner	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Steven Hess	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O MEDAVAIL TECHNOLOGIES INC., 6665 MILLCREEK DR, UNIT 1, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5N 5M4
Edwin Kilroy	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MEDAVAIL TECHNOLOGIES INC., 6665 MILLCREEK DR, UNIT 1, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5N 5M4