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Midwest Holding (Midwest Holding) Predictability Rank


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What is Midwest Holding Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Midwest Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Midwest Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Midwest Holding's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Midwest Holding (Midwest Holding) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2900 South 70th Street, Suite 400, Lincoln, NE, USA, 68506
Midwest Holding Inc is a financial service holding company. The company is engaged in the underwriting and marketing of life insurance products through American Life. Its product offerings consist of a multi-benefit life insurance policy that combines cash value life insurance with a tax-deferred annuity and a single premium term life product. These product offerings are underwritten, marketed, and managed as a group of similar products on an overall portfolio basis. Geographically, the activities are carried out throughout the region of the United States.
Executives
Knott David M Jr 10 percent owner DORSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, 485 UNDERHILL BOULEVARD, SUITE 205, SYOSSET NY 11791
Diane C. Davis director 201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Nancy Lyons Callahan director 2900 SOUTH 70TH STREET, SUITE 400, LINCOLN NE 68506
Kevin Martin Sheehan director 115 PINE BROOK ROAD, BEDFORD NY 10506
Knott Partners Lp 10 percent owner 485 UNDERHILL BOULEVARD, SUITE 205, SYOSSET NY 11791
Eoin Elliffe officer: Chief Risk Officer 2900 SOUTH 70TH STREET, SUITE 400, LINCOLN NE 68506
Daniel Scott Maloney officer: EVP-Accounting & Finance (PAO) 5250 S. SIXTH ST, C/O UNITED TRUST GROUP, SPRINGIELD IL 62703
Yadin Rozov director 9 TERRACE CIRCLE, ARMONK NY 10504
Eric N. Berg officer: Chief Financial Officer 2900 SOUTH 70TH STREET, SUITE 400, L NE 68506
Michael W. Minnich director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 7 EAST 20TH STREET, APARTMENT 12F, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jack Theeler director 8101 O STREET, SUITE S111, LINCOLN NE 68510
Georgette C. Nicholas officer: President & CFO 2900 SOUTH 70TH STREET, SUITE 400, LINCOLN NE 68506
Stephen Alan Mace officer: General Counsel 2900 SOUTH 70TH STREET, SUITE 400, LINCOLN NE 68506
Debra Havranek officer: VP & CFO 2900 SOUTH 70TH STREET, SUITE 400, LINCOLN NE 68506
Michael Minnich director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman 7 EAST 20TH STREET, APARTMENT 12F, NEW YORK NY 10003

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