Cheniere Energy (Cheniere Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Cheniere Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cheniere Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cheniere Energy (Cheniere Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Cheniere Energy Inc (NYSE:LNG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LNG:Mexico CHQ1:Germany CHQ1:Germany

Address

700 Milam Street, Suite 1900, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.cheniere.com

Cheniere Energy owns and operates the Sabine Pass liquefied natural gas terminal via its stake in Cheniere Partners. It also owns the Corpus Christi LNG terminals as well as Cheniere Marketing, which markets LNG using Cheniere's gas volumes.

Executives

Denise Gray	director	7450 N. MCCORMICK BLVD., SKOKIE IL 60076
Matthew Jk Runkle	director	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Vicky A Bailey	director	2099 PENNSYLVANIA AVNUE, NW, SUITE 1000, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Grindal Corey	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Brian E Edwards	director	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Aaron D. Stephenson	officer: SVP, Operations	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
G Andrea Botta	director	14 EAST 75TH ST #8A, NEW YORK NY 10021
Scott Bennett Peak	director	1200 SMITH STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Neal A Shear	director	1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
David L Slack	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Lorraine Mitchelmore	director	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Patricia K Collawn	director	414 SILVER AVE SW MS 1275, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87102-3289
David B Kilpatrick	director	35 HARBOR RIDGE DR., SUITE 4800, NEWORT BEACH CA 92660
Andrew Teno	director	C/O FIR TREE INC., 55 WEST 46TH STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Nuno Brandolini	director	717 TEXAS AVE., SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77002