Permian Resources (Permian Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Permian Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Permian Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Permian Resources (Permian Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Permian Resources Corp (NYSE:PR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PR:Mexico YZ8:Germany

Address

300 N. Marienfeld Street, Suite 1000, Midland, TX, USA, 79701

Website

https://www.permianres.com

Permian Resources Corp is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on generating outsized returns to stakeholders through the responsible acquisition, optimization and development of oil and liquids-rich natural gas assets.

Executives

Guy M Oliphint	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O PENNIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION, I300 N. MARIENFELD ST., SUITE 1000, MIDLAND TX 79701
Silver Run Sponsor, Llc	10 percent owner	1000 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1450, C/O RIVERSTONE EQUITY, HOUSTON TX 77002
Encap Energy Capital Fund Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Ngp Xi Us Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	2850 N HARWOOD STREET, 19TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201
Riverstone Non-eci Usrpi Aiv, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS, 712 FIFTH AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Rel Us Centennial Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS, 712 FIFTH AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robert John Anderson	director	1400 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, SUITE 300, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
U.s. Bank Trust Company, National Association	10 percent owner	111 SW FIFTH AVENUE, PORTLAND OR 97204
Encap Energy Capital Fund Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Frost W. Cochran	director	34 S. WYNDEN DR, STE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Encap Energy Capital Fund Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Bold Energy Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	600 N. MARIENFELD ST., SUITE 1000, MIDLAND TX 79701
Encap Partners Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Brent P Jensen	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CENTENNIAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, INC, 1401 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
John Charles Bell	officer: EVP & General Counsel	C/O CENTENNIAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, INC, 1001 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202