GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Microwave Filter Co Inc (OTCPK:MFCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

MFCO (Microwave Filter Co) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Microwave Filter Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Microwave Filter Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Microwave Filter Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Microwave Filter Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Microwave Filter Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Microwave Filter Co Inc (OTCPK:MFCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ELST GTXO AWSM AMPG OSAT SIML TCCO DGDM BDR CSCO SHSE:601138 OSTO:ERIC B MSI SZSE:000063 OHEL:NOKIA SHSE:600745 ZBRA HPE UI SZSE:300454
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6743 Kinne Street, East Syracuse, Syracuse, NY, USA, 13057
Website
https://www.microwavefilter.com
Microwave Filter Co Inc operates in the United States and principally in one Industry. The Company extends credit to business customers, including original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors and other end users, based upon ongoing credit evaluations. MFC designs, develops, manufactures and sells electronic filters, both for radio and microwave frequencies, to help process signal distribution and to prevent unwanted signals from disrupting transmit or receive operations. Markets served include 5G, cable television, television and radio broadcast, satellite broadcast, mobile radio and commercial and defense electronics.
Executives
Hummingbird Value Fund Lp other: See explanation of responses 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hummingbird Management Llc other: See explanation of responses 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Paul D Sonkin other: See explanation of responses 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hummingbird Capital Llc other: See explanation of responses 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Tarsier Nanocap Value Fund, Lp other: See explanation of responses C/O HUMMINGBIRD MANAGEMENT, LLC, 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher N Argyrople 10 percent owner 50 MILK STREET, 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109

Microwave Filter Co Headlines

No Headlines