MHTX (Manhattan Scientifics) Predictability Rank

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What is Manhattan Scientifics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Manhattan Scientifics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Manhattan Scientifics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Manhattan Scientifics Inc (OTCPK:MHTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

244 Fifth Avenue, Suite 2341, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

http://www.mhtx.com

Manhattan Scientifics Inc is a company operating as a technology incubator that seeks to acquire, develop and commercialize life-enhancing technologies in the areas of nano-technologies and nano-medicines. The company continues to identify emerging technologies through strategic alliances with scientific laboratories, educational institutions, and scientists and leaders in industry and government. Its current focus is on the development of nanomaterials through the acquisition of Metallicum.

Executives

Chris Theoharis	director	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Photios Frank Georgiou	director	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Emmanuel Tsoupanarias	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Leonard Friedman	director	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Marvin Maslow	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Office	MANHATTAN SCIENTIFICS INC, 541 FIFTH AVE STE 36F, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Teich	director, officer: Treasurer	MANHATTAN SCIENTIFICS INC, 541 FIFTH AVE STE 36F, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ralph Anderson	director	641 FIFTH AVENUE SUITE 36F, NEW YORK NY 10022
Larry H Schatz	director	152 W. 57TH STREET, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Marty Steinberg	10 percent owner	1111 BRICKELL AVENUE SUITE 2500, MIAMI FL 33131
Scott Bach	director, officer: Secretary	MANHATTAN SCIENTIFICS INC, 541 FIFTH AVE STE 36F, NEW YORK NY 10022

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