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NFT (MI) Predictability Rank


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What is NFT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NFT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NFT Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of NFT's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

NFT (MI) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » NFT Ltd (AMEX:MI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PIK OCG JWEL JFBR ASAP WNW IPW YJ MOGU AMZN BABA PDD HKSE:03690 MELI JD CPNG SE EBAY TSE:4689 BOM:543320
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
45-47 Au Pui Wan Street, Flat H 3rd Floor, Haribest Industrial Building, Sha Tin, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.takungae.com
NFT Ltd Formerly Takung Art Co Ltd operates an online electronic platform for offering and trading artwork. Through its platform, the company allows artists/art dealers/owners to access a much bigger art trading market where artists can engage with a wide range of investors. Its platform also invests in high-end artwork accessible to ordinary people without financial resources. The company's trading platforms comprise the sale of calligraphies and paintings, jewelry, and precious stones. It generates revenue in the form of services in connection with the offering and trading of artwork on its system, consisting of listing fees, trading commissions, and management fees.
Executives
Li Kwok Leung Paul officer: Chief Executive Officer ROOM 709 TOWER 2, ADMIRALTY CENTRE, 18 HARCOURT ROAD, ADMIRALTY, HONG KONG K3 00000
Jiangping Xiao director 801 W ADAMS ST, CHICAGO IL 60607
Tracy Chui-kam Ng officer: Chief Financial Officer ROOM 1105 WING ON PLAZA, 62 MODY ROAD, TSIM SHA TSUI, KOWLOON, HONG KONG K3 00000
Li Lv director ROOM 1105 WING ON PLAZA, 62 MODY ROAD, TSIM SHA TSUI, KOWLOON K3 999077
Xiaoyu Zhang director FLAT/RM 03-04 20/F HUTCHISON HOUSE, 10 HARCOURT ROAD, CENTRAL HONG KONG K3 00000
Yang Zhihua officer: Chief Executive Officer ROOM 1105 WING ON PLAZA, 62 MODY ROAD, TSIM SHA TSUI, KOWLOON K3 999077
Jing Wang officer: Chief Financial Officer ROOM 1105 WING ON PLAZA, 62 MODY ROAD, KOWLOON K3 999077
Hui Ngai Ma 10 percent owner 2A, BLOCK H3, CHI FU FA YUEN, POK FU LAM, HONG KONG K3 000000
Jian Xiao director, 10 percent owner C/O TAKUNG ART CO., LTD, 1105 WING ON PLAZA, 62 MODY ROAD, TSIM SHA TSUI, KOWLOON K3 999077
Fang Mu officer: Chief Executive Officer 1105 WING ON PLAZA, 62 MODY ROAD, TSIM SHA TSUI, KOWLOON K3 999077
Jehn Ming Lim officer: Chief Financial Officer FLAT E,7/F, BLOCK 3 ,BANYAN MANSION, WHAMPOA GARDEN,HUNG HOM, KOWLOON, HONG KONG K3 00000
Tianjian Long Shun Inv 10 percent owner SHAZHUANG VILLAGE, SHUANGJIE TOWN, BEICHEN DISTRICT, TIANJIN CITY F4 300400
Ming Cheng director FLAT/RM 03-04 20/F HUTCHISON HOUSE, 10 HARCOURT ROAD, CENTRAL HONG KONG K3 00000
Chow Chun Hin Leslie officer: Chief Financial Officer FLAT/RM 03-04 20/F HUTCHISON HOUSE, 10 HARCOURT ROAD, CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 00000
Zishen Li director FLAT/RM 03-04 20/F HUTCHISON HOUSE, 10 HARCOURT ROAD, CENTRAL, HONG KONG NY 00000