AG Mortgage Investment Trust (AG Mortgage Investment Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is AG Mortgage Investment Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AG Mortgage Investment Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AG Mortgage Investment Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AG Mortgage Investment Trust (AG Mortgage Investment Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc (NYSE:MITT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

LFT AJX AAIC EARN CHMI ACR SACH SEVN LOAN WMC NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR

Traded in Other Exchanges

MITTpC.PFD:USA MITTpB.PFD:USA MITTpA.PFD:USA

Address

245 Park Avenue, 26th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10167

Website

https://www.agmit.com

AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust (REIT). It focuses on investing in, acquiring and managing a diversified portfolio of residential mortgage assets, other real estate-related securities, and financial assets, which the company refers to as its target assets. It also focuses on investing in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) issued or guaranteed by a government-sponsored enterprise.

Executives

Matthew Jozoff	director	C/O AG MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST, INC., 245 PARK AVENUE, FL. 26, NEW YORK NY 10167
Joseph Lamanna	director	226 NORTH LINCOLN STREET, HINSDALE IL 60521
David N Roberts	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	245 PARK AVE 26TH FL, C/O ANGELO GRODON & CO, NEW YORK NY 10167
Nicholas P Smith	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O ANGELO, GORDON & CO., L.P., 245 PARK AVENEUE, 26TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10167
Jenny B Neslin	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O NORTHSTAR ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, 399 PARK AVENUE 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Anthony William Rossiello	officer: Chief Financial Officer	245 PARK AVENUE 26TH FLOOR, C/O ANGELO, GORDON & CO., L.P., NEW YORK NY 10167
Dianne Hurley	director	590 MADISON AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thomas Durkin	director, officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O ANGELO, GORDON & CO., L.P., 245 PARK AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Alison Halpern	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ANGELO, GORDON & CO., L.P., 245 PARK AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Brian Chad Sigman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Debra Ann Hess	director	C/O NORTHSTAR REALTY FINANCE CORP., 399 PARK AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew L Berger	director	860 UNITED NATIONS PLAZA, #15G, NEW YORK NY 10017
Arthur S Ainsberg	director	C/O ANGELO, GORDON & CO., L.P., 245 PARK AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Peter Linneman	director	1696 N E MIAMI GARDENS DR, N MIAMI BEACH FL 33179
Raul Enrique Moreno	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O ANGELO, GORDON & CO., L.P., 245 PARK AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167