ML (MoneyLion) Predictability Rank

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What is MoneyLion Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MoneyLion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MoneyLion Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » MoneyLion Inc (NYSE:ML) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

249 West 17th Street, 4th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10010

Website

https://investors.moneylion.com

MoneyLion Inc is a mobile banking and financial membership platform that empowers people to take control of their finances. It is a full-service digital platform to deliver mobile banking, lending, and investment solutions. The company offers a personalized, all-in-one, digital financial platform that provides convenient, low-cost access to banking, borrowing, and investing solutions tailored for its customers, rooted in data, and delivered through its proprietary technology platform.

Executives

Mark Torossian	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1400 BROADWAY, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Adam Vanwagner	officer: General Counsel	30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Richard Correia	officer: Chief Financial Officer	30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Diwakar Choubey	director, officer: President, CEO and Director	30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Timmie Hong	officer: Chief Product Officer	30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Chris Sugden	director	1009 LENOX DRIVE, # 4, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08648
John C Chrystal	director	C/O BANCORP, INC., 409 SILVERSIDE ROAD, SUITE 105, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Jeff Gary	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	390 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Matthew Derella	director	C/O TWITTER, INC., 1355 MARKET STREET, SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Gregory Depetris	director	30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Michael Paull	director	30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Rohit Dsouza	10 percent owner	C/O MONEYLION INC., 30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Chee Mun Foong	officer: Chief Technology Officer	30 WEST 21ST STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Greenspring Global Partners Viii-c, L.p.	10 percent owner	100 PAINTERS MILL ROAD, SUITE 700, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Greenspring Global Partners Viii-a, L.p	10 percent owner	100 PAINTERS MILL ROAD, SUITE 700, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117