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MNP Petroleum (MNP Petroleum) Predictability Rank


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What is MNP Petroleum Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MNP Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MNP Petroleum Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MNP Petroleum (MNP Petroleum) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » MNP Petroleum Corp (OTCPK:MNAP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PVAHQ TSXV:SC.H ASX:CRM TSXV:MET TSXV:ONV TSXV:MCF CPPXF TSXV:MHI ASX:EMP TSXV:HRH TSXV:HPL ASX:SPB COIL FRA:HQN TSXV:PDQ MIC:GTLC TSXV:ATI TSXV:CEY.H ASX:GRV TSXV:HOC
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Bahnhofstrasse 9, P.O. Box 1259, Baar, Zug, CHE, 6341
Website
http://www.mnppetroleum.com
MNP Petroleum Corp is engaged in the business of exploration and development of oil and gas resources, primarily in Central and East Asia. The company conducts its operations directly through participation in ventures with other oil and gas companies. Besides, it is also involved in exploration projects in Tajikistan. The company holds approximately 90% equity interest in CJSC Somon Oil which owns a working interest in two petroleum exploration licenses in the Fergana Basin.
Executives
Libra Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 767 THIRD AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ranjan Tandon 10 percent owner 909 THIRD AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Libra Fund, L.p. 10 percent owner 767 THIRD AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Libra Associates Llc 10 percent owner 777 THIRD AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Steven Andrew Sanders director, officer: Secretary 431 EAST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10010

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