What is MediciNova Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
MediciNova Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
MediciNova Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4275 Executive Square, Suite 300, La Jolla, CA, USA, 92037
MediciNova Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The company acquires and develops small-molecule therapeutics for the treatment of diseases with unmet medical needs with a specific focus on the U.S. market. Its products portfolio includes therapeutics such as MN-001, MN-166, MN-221 etc. The firm's current strategy is to focus its development activities on therapeutics for neurological disorders and fibrotic diseases.
Executives
| Nicole Lemerond |
director |
3 MURRAY HILL ROAD, SCARSDALE NY 10583 |
| Hideki Nagao |
director |
4350 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 950, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Jason J Kruger |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Douglas Paulin |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Gaeta Federico C.a. |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| 3d Investment Partners Pte. Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
250 NORTH BRIDGE ROAD, #13-01 RAFFLES CITY TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 179101 |
| 3d Opportunity Master Fund |
10 percent owner |
C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104 |
| Carolyn Beaver |
director |
3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Stepanow Edward C Jr. |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Kazuko Matsuda |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O MEDICINOVA, INC., 4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 650, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Yuichi Iwaki |
director |
C/O MEDICINOVA, INC., 4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 650, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Carla Reyes |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Yoshio Ishizaka |
director |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 650, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Yutaka Kobayashi |
director |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 650, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Geoffrey Obrien |
officer: Vice President |
4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 650, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
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