MNTS (Momentus) Predictability Rank

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What is Momentus Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Momentus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Momentus Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Momentus Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Momentus Inc (NAS:MNTS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3901 North First Street, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134

Website

https://www.momentus.space

Momentus Inc offers in-space infrastructure services by building transfer and service vehicles that carry satellites and hosted payloads between orbits in space. It is a provider of three critical functions, in the new space economy: Space Transportation, Satellite as a Service, and In-Orbit Servicing.

Executives

Brian Kabot	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1345 ABBOT KINNEY BLVD., VENICE CA 90291
Prime Movers Lab Fund I Lp	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 12829, JACKSON WY 83002
Victorino Mercado	director	C/O MOMENTUS INC., 3050 KENNETH ST., SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Eric R Williams	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3901 N. FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Dennis R. Mahoney	officer: Interim CFO	3901 N. FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Prime Movers Growth Fund I Lp	10 percent owner	6765 CRYSTAL SPRINGS ROAD, TETON VILLAGE WY 83025
Momentus Pml Spv 3 Lp	10 percent owner	6765 CRYSTAL SPRINGS RD, TETON VILLAGE WY 83025
Dakin Sloss	10 percent owner	126 E 56TH ST, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Momentus Pml Spv 2 Lp	10 percent owner	6765 CRYSTAL SPRINGS RD, TETON COUNTY WY 83025
Momentus Pml Spv 1 Lp	10 percent owner	PO BOX 12829, JACKSON WY 83002
Robert E Schwarz	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O MOMENTUS INC., 3901 N. FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jikun Kim	officer: Chief Financial Officer	181 W. HUNTINGTON DRIVE, SUITE 202, MONROVIA CA 91016
Kennedy Fred G Iii	officer: President	C/O MOMENTUS INC., 3050 KENNETH ST., SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Dawn A. Harms	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O MOMENTUS INC., 3050 KENNETH ST., SANTA CLARA CA 95054
John C. Rood	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MOMENTUS INC., 3050 KENNETH ST., SANTA CLARA CA 95054