Mannatech (Mannatech) Predictability Rank

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What is Mannatech Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mannatech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mannatech (Mannatech) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Mannatech Inc (NAS:MTEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1410 Lakeside Parkway, Suite 200, Flower Mound, TX, USA, 75028

Website

https://www.mannatech.com

Mannatech Inc is a wellness solution provider. The company develops and sells nutritional supplements, topical and skin care and anti-aging products, and weight-management products that target optimal health and wellness. Mannatech sells products in three regions: the Americas (the United States, Canada, and Mexico); Europe/the Middle East/Africa (EMEA) (Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, the Republic of Ireland, Namibia, the Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom); and Asia/Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China). Mannatech generates the majority of its revenue from Asia/Pacific, followed by the Americas.

Executives

Alfredo Bala	officer: CEO and President	28 CITY VIEW CIRCLE, NORTH PROVIDENCE RI 02911
Larry A Jobe	director	2951 KINWEST PARKWAY, IRVING TX 75063
Kevin Andrew Robbins	director	600 S. ROYAL LANE, STE. 200, COPPELL TX 75019
Seifrick A John	director	3443 WEST LAWTHER DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75214
J Stanley Fredrick	director, 10 percent owner	1601 BRYAN STREET, 30TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201
Gerald E Gilbert	director
Tyler Rameson	director	300 SHEFFIELD DRIVE, SANTA BARBARA CA 93108
Erin Kemmler Barta	officer: General Counsel	600 S. ROYAL LANE, SUITE 200, COPPELL TX 75019
Ronald Dale Norman	officer: Sr VP Treasury	600 S. ROYAL LANE, SUITE 200, COPPELL TX 75019
Joel R. Bikman	officer: COO	600 S. ROYAL LANE, SUITE 200, COPPELL TX 75019
Yong Jae Park	officer: Regional President	600 S ROYAL LANE, SUITE 200, COPPELL TX 75019
Christopher J. Simons	officer: Regional President	600 S ROYAL LANE, SUITE 200, COPPELL TX 75019
David Allen Johnson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	600 S. ROYAL LANE, SUITE 200, COPPELL TX 75019
Robert Toth	director
Eric W Schrier	director	MANNATECH, INCORPORATED, 600 S. ROYAL LANE, SUITE 200, COPPELL TX 75019