MVIS (Microvision) Predictability Rank

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What is Microvision Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Microvision Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Microvision Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Microvision Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Microvision Inc (NAS:MVIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0K17:UK MVIN:Germany MVIN:Germany

Address

18390 NE 68th Street, Redmond, WA, USA, 98052

Website

https://www.microvision.com

Microvision Inc is engaged in developing a lidar sensor to be used in automotive safety and autonomous driving applications. Its lidar sensor uses laser beam scanning (LBS) technology, which is based on systems that include micro-electrical mechanical systems (MEMS), laser diodes, opto-mechanics, electronics, algorithms, and software. The company has also developed solutions for Augmented Reality, Interactive Displays, and Consumer Lidars.

Executives

Robert Paul Carlile	director	1226 ALKI AVE SW, 5200, SEATTLE WA 98116
Judith Mecham Curran	director	17883 STONEBROOK CT, NORTHVILLE MI 48168
Mark Bradley Spitzer	director	5 MINK TRAP LANE, SHARON MA 02067
Sumit Sharma	director, officer: CEO	541 LAKE WASHINGTON BLVD E, SEATTLE WA 98112
Jeffrey A Herbst	director	35 ORCHARD HILLS STREET, ATHERTON CA 94027
Drew G Markham	officer: VP, General Counsel	6244 185TH AVE NE, STE 100, REDMOND WA 98052
Seval F Oz	director	14901 BRONSON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
Simon Biddiscombe	director	C/O MOBILEIRON, INC., 415 EAST MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Anubhav Verma	officer: VP, Chief Financial Officer	6244 185TH AVE NE, STE 100, REDMOND WA 98052
Stephen Patrick Holt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MICROVISION, INC., 6222 185TH AVE NE, REDMOND WA 98052
Brian V Turner	director	P.O. BOX 91123, SEATTLE WA 98111-9223
Perry Mulligan	director	EMULEX CORPORATION, 3333 SUSAN STREET, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Bernee Dl Strom	director, Director	5500 LAKE WASHINGTON BLVD NE, UNIT 3B, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Alexander Y Tokman	officer: President and COO	C/O MICROVISION, INC., 6222 185TH AVENUE NE, REDMOND WA 98052
David J Westgor	officer: VP,General Counsel & Secretary	C/O MICROVISION, INC., 6244 185TH AVENUE NE, REDMOND WA 98052