MXC (Mexco Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Mexco Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mexco Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Mexco Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mexco Energy Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Mexco Energy Corp (AMEX:MXC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

415 W. Wall Street, Suite 475, Midland, TX, USA, 79701

Website

https://www.mexcoenergy.com

Mexco Energy Corporation is an independent oil and gas company. It is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas and crude oil properties located in the United States. The company carried out its operation in the Permian Basin of West Texas. It is focusing on two primary areas, the Delaware Basin located in the Western portion of the Permian Basin including Lea and Eddy Counties, New Mexico and Loving County, Texas, and the Midland Basin located in the Eastern portion of the Permian Basin including Reagan, Upton, Midland, Martin, Howard, and Glasscock Counties, Texas. The company generates revenue from Oil sales, Natural gas sales, oil and gas royalty interests.

Executives

Tammy Mccomic	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	4417 W. STOREY, MIDLAND TX 79703
Stacy D. Hardin	officer: SECRETARY	2604 CIMMARON AVENUE, MIDLAND TX 79705
Thomas H Decker	director	271 HARBOR ROAD, RYE NH 03870
Donna Gail Yanko	director, officer: Vice President and Secretary
Tom Craddick	director	500 WEST TEXAS, SUITE 880, MIDLAND TX 79701
Michael J Banschbach	director	505 N. BIG SPRING, SUITE 504, MIDLAND TX 79701
Kenneth L. Clayton	director	12,335 BROKEN BOUGH DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77024
Nicholas C Taylor	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	1203 COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE, MIDLAND TX 79701
Christopher M Schroeder	director	5627 POTOMAC AVENUE NW, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Jack D Ladd	director	PO BOX 1540, MIDLAND TX 79702
Cox Howard E Jr	10 percent owner	880 WINTER ST 3RD FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Thomas Jr Graham	director, other: Chairman of the Board	C/O LIGHTBRIDGE CORPORATION, 11710 PLAZA AMERICA DRIVE, SUITE 2000, RESTON VA 20190
Paul G Hines	director	17 TRACHELLE LANE, CHARLESTON SC 29407
Jeffry A Smith	director	P O BOX 1374, MIDLAND TX 79702
Arden R Grover	director