MYE (Myers Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Myers Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Myers Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Myers Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Myers Industries Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Myers Industries Inc (NYSE:MYE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PACK KRT YHGJ MGIH DSS OCTO TRS OI IP SW AMCR PKG BALL AVY CCK TSX:CCL.A XSWX:SIGN GPK SLGN SEE

Traded in Other Exchanges

MJF:Germany

Address

1293 South Main Street, Akron, OH, USA, 44301

Website

https://www.myersindustries.com

Myers Industries Inc designs, manufactures, and markets a variety of plastic, metal, and rubber products, including a broad selection of plastic reusable containers, pallets, small parts bins, bulk shipping containers, storage and organization products, OEM parts, custom plastic products, consumer fuel containers and tanks for water, fuel and waste handling. It operates through the following segments: The Material Handling segment manufactures a selection of durable plastic reusable products that are used repeatedly during the course of their service life. The Distribution segment is engaged in the distribution of equipment, tools, and supplies used for tire servicing and automotive under-vehicle repair, etc. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Material Handling segment.

Executives

Yvette Dapremont Bright	director	739 WESTVIEW STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19119
Jeffrey Kramer	director	C/O SCHWEITZER-MAUDUIT INTERNT'L, INC., SUITE 600, ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Lori A. Lutey	director	3101 PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
William A Foley	director	P O BOX 10060, TOLEDO OH 436990060
Liebau Frederic Jack Jr	director	P.O. BOX 2200, PASADENA CA 91102-2200
Bruce M Lisman	director	C/O MERCHANTS BANK, 275 KENNEDY DR, S. BURLINGTON VT 05403
Michael P. Mcgaugh	director, officer: President and CEO	1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
Fitz E Grant	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O BLINK CHARGING CO., 407 LINCOLN ROAD, SUITE 704, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Monica P. Vinay	officer: Interim CFO, VP and Treasurer	1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
Ronald M Defeo	director	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 5100, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Jeffrey Jon Baker	officer: VP, Shared Services	1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
Paul Allan Johnson	officer: VP, Distribution Segment	1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
Jim Gurnee	officer: VP Sales/Marketing/Commercial	1293 S MAIN ST, AKRON OH 44301
Sarah R Coffin	director	31515 BALLANTYNE CORP, C/O SPX CORP, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Sonal P. Robinson	officer: EVP, Finance	1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301