NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Neurocrine Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Neurocrine Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Neurocrine Biosciences Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NAS:NBIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0K6R:UK NB3:Germany NB3:Germany N1BI34:Brazil

Address

12780 El Camino Real, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130

Website

https://www.neurocrine.com

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is a research-based pharmaceutical company advancing drug candidates in the central nervous system and endocrine-related categories. The company's three late stage clinical programs are elagolix which is hormone releasing antagonist for women's health, opicapone which is an inhibitor for parkinson's patients, and ingrezza for tourette syndrome.

Executives

Jude Onyia	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
David W. Boyer	officer: Chief Corp. Affairs Officer	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
William H Rastetter	director	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR., SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ingrid Delaet	officer: Chief Regulatory Officer	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Matt Abernethy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Gary A Lyons	director, officer: President and CEO	12790 EL CAMINO REAL, C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Darin Lippoldt	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O VOLCANO CORPORATION, 3661 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Julie Cooke	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Stephen A Sherwin	director	C/O CELL GENESYS, INC., 500 FORBES BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Leslie V Norwalk	director	C/O 3661 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Richard F Pops	director	10555 SCIENCE CENTER DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shalini Sharp	director	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Eric Benevich	officer: Chief Commerical Officer	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12790 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
George J Morrow	director	AMGEN INC., ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Eiry Roberts	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEO CA 92130