What is Virtus Convertible &ome Fund II Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Virtus Convertible &ome Fund II Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Virtus Convertible &ome Fund II (Virtus Convertible &ome Fund II) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
101 Munson Street, Greenfield, MA, USA, 01301
Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide total return through a combination of capital appreciation and high current income. Its portfolio of investments includes different sector investments such as in healthcare services, media, oil, gas and consumable fuels and others.
Executives
| Metlife Investment Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
ONE METLIFE WAY, WHIPPANY NJ 07981 |
| Mcdaniel Connie D |
director |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, 26TH FL., HARTFORD CT 06103 |
| Geraldine M Mcnamara |
director |
150 EAST 44TH ST, APT 35G, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| R Keith Walton |
director |
100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103 |
| Christine Hurtsellers |
other: CEO - Subadviser to the issuer |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Vincent J Costa |
other: CIO-Subadviser to the issuer |
800 SCUDDERS MILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536 |
| Paul Zemsky |
other: CIO-Subadviser to the issuer |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Voya Investment Management Co |
other: Subadviser to the issuer |
10 STATE HOUSE SQUARE, SH12, HARTFORD CT 06103-3602 |
| Brian T Zino |
director |
100 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Deborah A Decotis |
director |
1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Michael Yee |
officer: Portfolio Manager |
C/O ALLIANZ EQUITY ADVISORS, 1345 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| David J. Oberto |
officer: Portfolio Manager |
1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| George R Aylward |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103 |
| James S Macleod |
director |
250 E KILBOURN AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202 |
| Richard W Smirl |
officer: EVP |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06103 |
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