NGS (Natural Gas Services Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Natural Gas Services Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Natural Gas Services Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Natural Gas Services Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Natural Gas Services Group Inc (NYSE:NGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

404 Veterans Airpark Lane, Suite 300, Midland, TX, USA, 79705

Website

https://www.ngsgi.com

Natural Gas Services Group Inc provides natural gas compression equipment and services to the energy industry. The company manufactures, fabricates, rents, sells, and maintains natural gas compressors and flare systems for oil and natural gas production and plant facilities. Its operating units include Rental, Sales, and Aftermarket services. The company generates the majority of its revenue by renting out low- to medium-horsepower compression equipment to natural gas production companies in unconventional oil and gas regions of the United States.

Executives

Stephen Charles Taylor	director, officer: President and CEO	404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
Justin Jacobs	director	382 GREENWICH AVE, SUITE ONE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Georganne Hodges	director	2105 CITYWEST BLVD., SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77042
John D. Bittner	officer: Interim CFO	1920 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 950, DALLAS TX 75201
Brian L Tucker	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1250 NE LOOP 410, #1000, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209
Donald J Tringali	director	C/O INFORMATION ANALYSIS INCORPORATED, 11240 WAPLES MILL RD STE 201, FAIRFAX VA 22030
James D Faircloth	officer: Interim CFO	404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
Leslie Ann Beyer	director	C/O NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP., INC., 404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
James R Hazlett	officer: Vice President-Technical Svcs.	404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
John Chisholm	director	C/O FLOTEK INDUSTRIES, INC., 2930 W. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY N., STE. 300, HOUSTON TX 77043
Micah C. Foster	officer: Chief Financial Officer	404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
Nigel Jenvey	director	404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
James R Lawrence	officer: VP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP, INC., 404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
David L Bradshaw	director	508 WEST WALL STREET, SUITE 550, MIDLAND TX 79701
G Larry Lawrence	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LEGACY RESERVES GP, LLC, 303 W. WALL STREET, SUITE 1600, MIDLAND TX 79701